Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, or ARIMA, is one of the most widely used forecasting methods for univariate time series data forecasting. Although the method can handle data with a trend, it does not support time series with a seasonal component. An extension to ARIMA that supports the direct modeling of the seasonal component of the […]
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Quick-reference guide to the 15 statistical hypothesis tests that you need in applied machine learning, with sample code in Python. Although there are hundreds of statistical hypothesis tests that you could use, there is only a small subset that you may need to use in a machine learning project. In this post, you will discover […]
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A final machine learning model is one trained on all available data and is then used to make predictions on new data. A problem with most final models is that they suffer variance in their predictions. This means that each time you fit a model, you get a slightly different set of parameters that in […]
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You are handed data and told to develop a forecast model. What do you do? This is a common situation; far more common than most people think. Perhaps you are sent a CSV file. Perhaps you are given access to a database. Perhaps you are starting a competition. The problem can be reasonably well defined: […]
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When you are presented with a new time series forecasting problem, there are many things to consider. The choice that you make directly impacts each step of the project from the design of a test harness to evaluate forecast models to the fundamental difficulty of the forecast problem that you are working on. It is […]
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Machine learning methods can be used for classification and forecasting on time series problems. Before exploring machine learning methods for time series, it is a good idea to ensure you have exhausted classical linear time series forecasting methods. Classical time series forecasting methods may be focused on linear relationships, nevertheless, they are sophisticated and perform […]
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Statistics for Machine Learning Crash Course. Get on top of the statistics used in machine learning in 7 Days. Statistics is a field of mathematics that is universally agreed to be a prerequisite for a deeper understanding of machine learning. Although statistics is a large field with many esoteric theories and findings, the nuts and […]
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The weights of artificial neural networks must be initialized to small random numbers. This is because this is an expectation of the stochastic optimization algorithm used to train the model, called stochastic gradient descent. To understand this approach to problem solving, you must first understand the role of nondeterministic and randomized algorithms as well as […]
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Perhaps one of the most widely used statistical hypothesis tests is the Student’s t test. Because you may use this test yourself someday, it is important to have a deep understanding of how the test works. As a developer, this understanding is best achieved by implementing the hypothesis test yourself from scratch. In this tutorial, […]
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Artificial neural networks have two main hyperparameters that control the architecture or topology of the network: the number of layers and the number of nodes in each hidden layer. You must specify values for these parameters when configuring your network. The most reliable way to configure these hyperparameters for your specific predictive modeling problem is […]
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